M’sia maintains tax free crude palm oil exports

M’sia maintains tax free crude palm oil exports

Posted on 17 February 2015 - 05:37am

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KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia has kept tax on exports of crude palm oil at zero for March, a government circular showed yesterday, extending a duty-free policy held since October.

The move, which is likely to underpin prices, comes as a surprise as Malaysia's plantation industries and commodities minister said last week the country was planning to resume taxing exports from March.

The rate was scrapped from October to December, and later extended to end-February.

Malaysia, the world's second largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, calculated a reference price of RM2,232.88 per tonne for March crude palm oil, effectively incurring an export duty of 0%.

Increased global edible oil supplies and slowing demand have pressured palm oil prices which dropped 15% last year.

Authorities in Indonesia and Malaysian, which account for 85% of global palm oil production, are giving financial incentives in a bid to boost demand and support prices of the tropical product.

Indonesia has approved a threefold increase in biodiesel subsidies which is likely to take effect next month. – Reuters

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Analysts neutral on plantation sector even as production dips to lowest level in 47 months

by Jonathan Wong, jonathanwong@theborneopost.com. 

Posted on February 12, 2015, Thursday

KUCHING: Analysts reaffirm their neutral stance on the plantation sector following the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s (MPOB) announcement of an inventory dip for January 2015 to 1.77 million metric tonnes.

The lower MoM stockpile was largely due to a seasonal decline in production), the lowest in 47 months, intensified by the floods which hit parts of Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak; and a strong domestic consumption, which more than offset weaker exports.

Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (Affin Hwang Capital) was one of the firms maintaining its neutral stance in addition to upholding its estimated CPO price assumptions for 2015 up to 2017.

“CPO futures for the next three months are now trading higher in the RM2,200 to RM2,400 per MT band,” it said in a note to investors yesterday. “With regards to weather, most models now point to a 50 to 60 per cent chance of a weak and short El Niño event ending in early spring.

“We maintain our CPO ASP forecast of RM2,400 per MT for 2015E and RM2,500 per MT for 2016E to 2017E as well as neutral weighting for the plantation sector.”

TA Securities Holdings Bhd (TA Research) expects the CPO price to continue trading within the RM2,200 – RM2,400 per tonne range in 1QCY15.

At this juncture, any potential upside to CPO price will be supply-side driven in its view.

“The recent dry weather in Brazil had already resulted in a downgrade revision in soybean production forecast.

“In Indonesia, the dry weather in 3QCY14 could potentially result in negative lag impact in production in mid of this year. In the meantime, recommendation on Plantation sector remains at neutral.”

Coupled with tight palm oil supply expectation in 1H15 after a relatively good harvest in 2Q-3Q14, researchers at Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybankl IB Research) expects CPO price to make its seasonally recovery in 1Q15.

The good harvest was potentially aggravated by two distinct periods of dryness in 2014 which affected Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and Central Kalimantan with a lagged impact on production, it said.

“While the sector call remains neutral, we maintain our view that there is still a short term trading opportunity in 1Q15. This, however, assumes that crude oil (Brent) price bottoms out at US$55 per barrel.”

Read more: http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/02/12/analysts-neutral-on-plantation-sector-even-as-production-dips-to-lowest-level-in-47-months/#ixzz3RUtPD9Xi

Negligible impact from lower palm oil and rubber prices

Negligible impact from lower palm oil and rubber prices

As of Feb 5, CPO settlement prices for April 2015 climbed to RM2,312 per tonne

With both crude palm oil (CPO) and rubber prices trending near record lows, the impact on the economy could be felt soon. Lower CPO and rubber prices could place some added headwind upon the economy, which is already weakened by low crude oil prices.

Despite this, local economists downplay its impact, pointing out that palm oil and rubber exports represent only a small percentage of total exports. Market observers say the decline in commodity prices is not likely to have a lasting effect on the economy. Indonesia and Malaysia supply some 85% of the world’s palm oil.

According to AllianceDBS Research chief economist, Manokaran Mottain, palm oil and rubber exports’ impact is negligible.
“It [impact] is negligible compared to crude oil and other exports as palm oil and rubber represents only 6% of exports. Exports are still supported by liquefied natural gas [LNG] and electronics,” he tells FocusM.

Fears of oversupply and waning demand have driven CPO prices down by 33%. On Aug 29, CPO was hovering at RM1,929 per tonne, the lowest in four-and-a-half years. On March 11 last year, the CPO price reached RM2,917, its highest in recent years.

Despite a price rally in the first quarter of last year, CPO price fell victim to record soybean supply, which pushed soya oil prices lower. Low soya prices historically place some ceiling pressure on CPO prices. Waning demand from China also placed downward pressure on CPO prices where the Chinese market alone represents some 16% of demand for Malaysian palm oil.

Malaysia’s CPO exports from January to November last year totalled RM43.1 bil, marking a rise of 3.1% from 2013

Reference

- See more at: http://www.focusmalaysia.my/Markets/Negligible%20impact%20from%20lower%20palm%20oil%20and%20rubber%20prices#sthash.9TdpD1yg.dpuf

Eksport MALAYSIA 2015 tumbuh 2-3%

KUALA LUMPUR 5 Feb. - Prestasi eksport Malaysia dijangka terus kukuh pada 2015 dengan unjuran pertumbuhan sebanyak dua hingga tiga peratus melalui penekanan kepada pasaran baharu.

Menteri Perdagangan Antarabangsa dan Industri, Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed berkata, bagi menghadapi kelembapan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia dan pertumbuhan yang lebih rendah daripada rakan dagangan tradisional, kerajaan akan memberi fokus pada pasaran baharu seperti Afrika, Asia Tengah dan Amerika Selatan.

“Kita dapat melihat pertumbuhan yang menggalakkan daripada pasaran baharu pada tahun lalu, jadi kita akan memberi fokus pada pasaran baharu dan juga ASEAN yang merupakan pasaran penting. Namun begitu, pasaran tradisional akan terus memainkan peranan penting, cuma negara mahu melihat kepada pasaran baharu,” katanya dalam sidang akhbar Laporan Prestasi Perdagangan Malaysia 2014 di sini hari ini.

Beliau berkata demikian ketika ditanya bagaimana Malaysia akan mengekalkan pertumbuhan perdagangan memandangkan rakan dagangan utama seperti China, Eropah dan Amerika Syarikat (AS) menjangkakan pertumbuhan dagangan yang lebih rendah pada tahun ini.

Sementara itu, Mustapa memberitahu, pertumbuhan eksport Malaysia yang kukuh dan melepasi jangkaan telah menyokong perdagangan Malaysia pada 2014 dengan kenaikan sebanyak 5.9 peratus kepada RM1.45 trilion, berbanding RM1.37 trilion tahun sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan perdagangan negara bagi 2014 diunjur 5.2 peratus.

Katanya, eksport meningkat sebanyak 6.4 peratus atau RM46.14 bilion kepada RM766.13 bilion, melepasi unjuran enam peratus dalam Laporan Ekonomi 2014/2015, manakala import meningkat seba-nyak 5.3 peratus atau RM34.32 bilion kepada RM683.02 bilion.

“Pertumbuhan eksport yang kukuh menghasilkan lebihan dagangan sebanyak RM83.11 bilion yang merupakan lebihan dagangan tahun ke-17 berturut-turut dicatatkan. Lebihan dagangan 2014 mencatatkan pertumbuhan dua digit iaitu sebanyak 16.6 peratus, satu pencapaian yang memberangsangkan berbanding dengan senario pertumbuhan pada 2012 dan 2013,” ujarnya.

Jelasnya, rakan dagang utama yang menyumbang kepada pertumbuhan dalam perdagangan ialah negara-negara ASEAN yang berkembang sebanyak RM14.54 bi-lion atau 3.9 peratus, diikuti Kesa-tuan Eropah (EU) sebanyak RM8.35 bilion atau 6.2 peratus, AS (RM8.01 bilion atau 7.4 peratus), Australia (RM7.48 bilion atau 16.4 peratus), Hong Kong (RM6.05 bilion atau 14.5 peratus), Taiwan (RM5.94 bi-lion atau 11.2 peratus) dan China (RM4.54 bilion atau 2.2 peratus).

Tambah beliau, peningkatan eksport didorong oleh permintaan yang lebih tinggi untuk produk pembuatan, terutamanya barangan elektrik dan elektronik (E&E) dan permintaan kukuh bagi komoditi.

“Dengan pengecualian komoditi eksport seperti minyak sawit dan getah, eksport lain ke China terus kekal.

rujukan

- See more at: http://www.utusan.com.my/bisnes/ekonomi/eksport-2015-tumbuh-2-3-

Mustapa Mohamed